@not_a_charm🇮🇷🇾🇪🇸🇦 3 ROUTES OUT OF THE GULF. ALL 3 ARE COMPROMISED The East-West pipeline was Saudi Arabia's answer to Hormuz. 1,200 km across the peninsula to Yanbu on the Red Sea, the one way to get crude out without passing Iran. It shut down Friday after attacks, putting roughly 4 million barrels a day at risk. That was the workaround. The alternative it feeds into, Bab el-Mandeb, is now under Houthi pressure and could close on up to 9 million. Hormuz itself is moving about a fifth of its pre-war volume, which takes another 15 million out of circulation. Even netting out the overlap (the pipeline exists precisely to avoid Hormuz, so you can't count both in full) what's offline or threatened approaches 30 million barrels a day against a 100 million barrel market. Every escape route from the Gulf runs through somebody's crosshairs now. That's not three separate crises. It's one, with three doors. Source: KobeissiLetter / Writer: Oliver

@not_a_charm🇮🇷🇾🇪🇸🇦 3 ROUTES OUT OF THE GULF. ALL 3 ARE COMPROMISED The East-West pipeline was Saudi Arabia's answer to Hormuz. 1,200 km across the peninsula to Yanbu on the Red Sea, the one way to get crude out without passing Iran. It shut down Friday after attacks, putting roughly 4 million barrels a day at risk. That was the workaround. The alternative it feeds into, Bab el-Mandeb, is now under Houthi pressure and could close on up to 9 million. Hormuz itself is moving about a fifth of its pre-war volume, which takes another 15 million out of circulation. Even netting out the overlap (the pipeline exists precisely to avoid Hormuz, so you can't count both in full) what's offline or threatened approaches 30 million barrels a day against a 100 million barrel market. Every escape route from the Gulf runs through somebody's crosshairs now. That's not three separate crises. It's one, with three doors. Source: KobeissiLetter / Writer: Oliver