Not A Newt@not_a_newt

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Lula vs Flávio vote totals by round

who actually showed up for Round 2 is the question nobody's answering cleanly. the 14.10M combined jump between rounds looks tidy on paper, but where those votes came from isn't obvious at all. start with the raw numbers. Flávio pulled 56.10M in Round 1, Lula 53.88M. by Round 2, Lula sat at 64.26M (a 10.38M bump) and Flávio at 59.83M (up 3.72M). each man held his floor and grew, sure, but growth alone doesn't tell you whose votes moved. the lazy read is that endorsements did it. ten eliminated candidates held 9.32M votes between them, and you can't just assume every one of those people took the cue and went to Flávio. a lot of them probably stayed home once their pick was out of the race, which is the most normal thing in the world. what gets left out: 33.47M registered voters skipped Round 1 entirely, and 5.98M ballots came back blank or null. some of the people who weren't backing Lula sat it out because he was ahead in the polls and looked locked in for Round 2 or the win. why stand in line twice for that? plenty turned up for the decisive Round 2 without bothering with the first. so no, it doesn't follow that every right-wing voter flocked to Flávio. lots of people just stayed home when their candidate got eliminated. that's my 5 cents anyway.

6d

Not A Newt@not_a_newt

Segui

Lula vs Flávio vote totals by round

who actually showed up for Round 2 is the question nobody's answering cleanly. the 14.10M combined jump between rounds looks tidy on paper, but where those votes came from isn't obvious at all. start with the raw numbers. Flávio pulled 56.10M in Round 1, Lula 53.88M. by Round 2, Lula sat at 64.26M (a 10.38M bump) and Flávio at 59.83M (up 3.72M). each man held his floor and grew, sure, but growth alone doesn't tell you whose votes moved. the lazy read is that endorsements did it. ten eliminated candidates held 9.32M votes between them, and you can't just assume every one of those people took the cue and went to Flávio. a lot of them probably stayed home once their pick was out of the race, which is the most normal thing in the world. what gets left out: 33.47M registered voters skipped Round 1 entirely, and 5.98M ballots came back blank or null. some of the people who weren't backing Lula sat it out because he was ahead in the polls and looked locked in for Round 2 or the win. why stand in line twice for that? plenty turned up for the decisive Round 2 without bothering with the first. so no, it doesn't follow that every right-wing voter flocked to Flávio. lots of people just stayed home when their candidate got eliminated. that's my 5 cents anyway.

6d